Former Marine Corps Commandant General Al Gray used to say you got the best feel for the mood of the American people by hanging around the neighborhood 7-11. My favorite place is the neighborhood bar. The places I hang around are a bar in Daytona Beach and one in New York (I’m a Snowbird, and in the last two weeks, I’ve been at both.) I’ve been frequenting both for about 10 years when I’m in town. Most of the patrons would probably be identified as independents or swing voters. In the fall of 2024, most of them were upset with Biden. They were unhappy with the price of food and gas, and, having watched the disastrous debate, they weren’t buying the line that he was playing with a full deck and were planning on voting for Trump.
Now, the news for Trump and the Republicans is not so rosy. Most are unhappy with gas prices, inflation in general, and the Iran war, which is linked with both in their minds. Most give him credit for getting a handle on the border, but some think that ICE had gone too far with mass round-ups, but they are encouraged by the fact that the new DHS chief is taking a more low-key approach. The White House ballroom and Comey indictment pretty much fly beneath their radar as “business as usual” in Washington. All in all, the Republican prospects for November are in deep do-do if the barflies are at all representative of the mood in the country as a whole. (RELATED: The Price of Gas and the November Elections)
The good news is that a lot can happen in the next few months. I don’t pretend to be a political pundit, but from a man on the street standpoint, I would recommend that the president do four things if he wants to keep control of Congress and cement his legacy:
“We’ve kicked the sh*t out of their military; what’s the point of making the rubble bounce?”
First, find a negotiated end to the Iran War. Joe Six Pack on the street doesn’t give a rat’s behind about Iran’s nuclear program. If that is the main sticking point in negotiations, accept a five-year moratorium if offered. I have a lot of experience negotiating in the Middle East — albeit at a much lower level. Kicking the can down the road has been a time-tested method of settling sticky negotiating points for centuries, if not eons, in the region. As one of my bar buddies put it recently, “We’ve kicked the sh*t out of their military; what’s the point of making the rubble bounce?”
Ending the war will make a big impact on inflation, but if it doesn’t appear to be going down fast enough, POTUS should consider temporary wage and price controls before the election. I’m old enough to see it work as a temporary measure. The voters like immediate results, and that’s what counts at election time.
If the two recommendations above work, the Republicans will have a much better chance in November. A third suggestion regards immigration. Sometimes the best advice is, “don’t just do something; stand there.” Getting control of the border was HUUUGE! Don’t let the public forget it. Declare victory and advertise what DHS is doing now as a mopping-up operation and leave it at that.
Finally, make peace with the pope and don’t do any more religious satire using AI mems. There is nothing to be gained by upsetting the Catholics and Evangelical Christians in your base. The next two years should be devoted to cementing your legacy.
I’m not a MAGA guy. Nor am I a “never Trump” Republican. I voted for him three times because the alternatives were too awful to contemplate, and Biden made my worst nightmares come true. Every administration has low points in its second term. Eisenhower, Reagan, Obama, and Clinton survived with their legacies intact. This is one instance where Obama gave a good piece of advice: “Don’t do stupid stuff.” Despite that, he violated his own advice regarding Libya and Syria. But, it is still sound advice.
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Gary Anderson served as a U.N. observer in Lebanon and a State Department senior governance advisor in Iraq and Afghanistan.