Poland’s Return to the Bad Old Days?
In Poland, Nov. 1 marks All Saints’ Day, a national holiday in which Poles customarily visit the graves of deceased loved ones with candles and flowers. Many of the deceased visited this year would have lived through the 1981 imposition of martial law, the communist regime’s desperate attempt to restrict the power of the Solidarity movement in the face of a Soviet military threat.
Forty-five years later, Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed the nation in a manner recalling General Wojciech Jaruzelski’s infamous 1981 martial-law speech and told his audience, “I would very much like us never to have to witness such scenes in Poland again.”
Opposition figures have called it a coup.
He was referring to Friday’s dramatic raid on the Constitutional Tribunal, an object of much political wrangling over the last decade. On Friday evening, an unconfirmed Tusk-appointed judge asserted for herself powers of “substitute” to the sitting Tribunal president and proclaimed a “suspension” of sitting judges. Police were deployed around the building and barred the sitting Tribunal president, vice president, Tribunal Guard, and staff from entering. Opposition figures have called it a coup.
President Karol Nawrocki, a conservative elected separately from Tusk’s liberal-leftist-centrist coalition, was en route to Senegal for a state visit but returned to Warsaw. Journalist Stanisław Janecki reported that the army personnel responsible for the military wing of Warsaw’s Okęcie Airport ignored instructions to refuse landing to the presidential plane and divert it to another Polish airport. Readers should note that this is unconfirmed at the time of writing, and various officials have denied this reporting. (RELATED: Poland’s Enemies, Foreign and Domestic)
Nawrocki rushed to the Tribunal building and forced his way through a police cordon, an image that circulated worldwide via social media. He attempted to broker a compromise throughout the weekend, but these efforts were, at least initially, unsuccessful.
“Last night, the constitutional order of the Republic of Poland was violated and a constitutional state body was taken over by force,” wrote President Nawrocki on Saturday. “In view of the threat to the internal security of the Republic of Poland, I am convening urgent consultations today with representatives of the parliamentary groupings, aimed at stabilising the political situation and restoring the constitutional order.”
Battles over the Tribunal’s composition have raged for over a decade, becoming especially prominent in 2015, a year that saw the Right sweep presidential and parliamentary elections. Poland, like its Central European neighbors, featured a judiciary comprised largely of a communist-era elite varnished with a coat of liberal paint, a phenomenon described in detail in Ryszard Legutko’s 2016 book The Demon in Democracy: Totalitarian Temptations in Free Societies. (RELATED: What Next for Poland After Nawrocki Victory?)
From 2015-23, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, bolstered by the confirmation power of the generally sympathetic President Andrzej Duda, was able to reshape the nation’s judiciary, incensing EU officials and forming one of the defining pillars of Tusk’s bid to return to Polish politics. Tusk formed a broad anti-PiS coalition government after the 2023 parliamentary elections but has not enjoyed the advantage of a presidential ally. When Duda’s term expired in 2025, Nawrocki prevailed in a mild upset over the impeccably credentialed liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. One can say Polish voters elected a check on parliamentary power, a reality that has frustrated Tusk in the Sejm (Parliament) and in the courts. Though Tusk promised to depoliticize the court, he has nominated close allies, most notably Maciej Berek, a recent government minister whom Tusk has called his “right-hand man.”
The legal finer points are very technical, and an article of this length is insufficient to analyze them. Readers interested in the details of Polish constitutional law can find professional, up-to-date analysis from the Ordo Iuris Institute for Legal Culture, which publishes all of its materials in English.
From an American perspective, bickering over the Tribunal’s recent history might be likened to that of gerrymandering in U.S. elections. It should be difficult to entertain claims that only the opposing camp has behaved badly (though many do). The court-composition battle can be likened to skirmishes over SCOTUS and court-packing, though this imperfect analogy lacks the dichotomy of a head of government (prime minister) and head of state (president) that exists in Poland and much of Europe, as well as the aforementioned communist-cum-liberal elite.
The situation is developing, and the fallout will take time to assess, but President Nawrocki looks to be bolstering his reputation at Prime Minister Tusk’s expense. Nawrocki gained personal-best favorability ratings earlier this year after clashing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when the latter commemorated a World War II-era Ukrainian nationalist partisan group that committed genocide against Poles, a course the Tusk camp was unwilling to take with any conviction.
One of the defining images from this weekend is that of the former boxer Nawrocki barreling through a sea of riot police. Nawrocki casts the figure of a leader defending Polish interests, while Tusk evokes the Polish-born servant of a foreign power, a well-worn archetype from Mickiewicz’s Major Płut to Jaruzelski. This image was strengthened further when the European Commission issued a statement in support of Tusk’s unconfirmed judges, and again when heads of major Polish police unions criticized the police deployment. “No policeman or policewoman wants to become an element of political games,” wrote Jacek Łukasik, chairman of the union Policyjna Solidarność. “The police have once again involuntarily become an element being used in the political dispute among our elites,” said Rafał Jankowski, chairman of the union Niezależny Samorządny Związek Zawodowy Policjantów.
Furthermore, observers have noted that Poland’s fragmented Right, represented by no fewer than four factions at this time, has seamlessly united behind Nawrocki. That is especially significant heading into the 2027 election year, in which the broad Right could win a majority of votes but struggle to form a coalition. At least for now, it has a common villain. Even some representatives of the Tusk government are appalled. The Polish ambassadors to China, Romania, and the United Nations resigned in protest, a personal blow to Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.
By any measure, Tusk emerges from this weekend looking the part of a petty authoritarian.
By any measure, Tusk emerges from this weekend looking the part of a petty authoritarian. Staging the raid while President Nawrocki was on an intercontinental flight and many Poles were leaving the capital for the All Saints’ Day weekend isn’t the behavior of one who has truth on his side. Expected chaos from the upcoming U.S. midterms might have been another timing consideration. Emerging investigations suggest politicians planned the action well in advance, with only three police commanders informed. During his national address, Tusk looked and sounded shaky. He even made the requisite references to shadowy Russian antagonists. A young warrior from the Solidarity days now plays the role of the beleaguered Jaruzelski.
Pundits will make extensive comparisons to recent events in Brazil, the United States, and other parts of Europe. Online discussion already highlights the machinations of President Obama, Senator Slotkin, the CIA, and the EU. These are all valid considerations. The media landscape, though, should not be lost in this noise. Western corporate media have been slow in reporting this weekend’s developments. The expected pro-Tusk, pro-EU narrative has ultimately materialized, but it has been lukewarm.
Now the prime minister looks to be a cornered animal, lashing out in defense of a liberal order that has a diminished capacity to assert its will. As students of 1980’s Poland are aware, a cornered animal can still be dangerous.
Tusk’s opponents have reason for optimism after the Tribunal crisis, but one jarring frustration is a perceived lack of American support. U.S. Ambassador Tom Rose was quick to address these developments, but the State Department and the White House have thus far been silent. Secretary Rubio was even photographed at the Florida-Georgia football game with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and other foreign ministers, following a G20 summit. Tusk and Sikorski have weathered significant scandal in their careers, and they still enjoy unquestioned European institutional backing. The week’s events on this side of the Atlantic loom large.
READ MORE from Michael O’Shea:
Poland’s Enemies, Foreign and Domestic
Iceland Rushes Aboard the EU Sinking Ship
The ‘Black Insurgent’ and Americanization of Polish Society
Michael O’Shea is an American-Polish writer and translator. He is a former visiting fellow at the Danube Institute in Budapest.
This image is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Poland.